Chile’s Ministry of Energy has released a preliminary long-term energy planning report, projecting 27GW to 58GW of additional solar capacity over the next 30 years under five different development scenarios.
According to the preliminary report for Chile’s 2028–2032 Long-Term Energy Plan (PELP), the country’s solar PV capacity could increase by 27 GW to 58 GW through 2057.
The range reflects five scenarios shaped by differences in economic growth, fuel costs, technology development, and energy policies. The model starts with 12,015 MW of existing solar capacity, including both utility-scale plants and small distributed generation systems. An additional 490 MW operating under net metering is also included and directly deducted from demand in the model.
The projections will serve as an input for the National Energy Commission’s annual transmission expansion planning. The report also estimates that onshore wind capacity could grow by 16GW to 27GW over the same period.
Across all five scenarios, the optimal expansion of Chile’s national electricity system relies heavily on new solar PV capacity in northern Chile, combined with onshore wind farms in the central-southern regions of Maule and Biobío.
Solar development is closely linked to battery energy storage, particularly in scenarios that assume higher fossil fuel prices, coal plant retirements, and the inclusion of a carbon dioxide tax in variable generation costs.
The model starts with 4,078 MW of battery storage capacity expected to be operational or under construction by the end of 2026, with an average storage duration of 4.3 hours. Most of this capacity is concentrated in northern Chile, with 56% in Antofagasta, 15% in Atacama, and another 15% in Tarapacá.
The report indicates that future investment will require longer-duration energy storage. Several scenarios include six- and eight-hour battery systems as an important part of capacity expansion, allowing daytime solar generation to be shifted into evening hours and providing additional flexibility during periods of low solar irradiation.
Battery storage is the only energy storage technology included as new capacity in the model. The projections do not include new pumped hydro, thermal storage, or other emerging storage technologies.
The report also provides its first analysis of offshore wind. The technology is developed in three of the five scenarios, provided that its costs decline at a moderate or favorable rate. The earliest projected start of offshore wind generation is 2041, while other scenarios see development beginning from 2048.
By the end of the projection period, at least 83% of annual electricity generation is expected to come from solar and wind. Renewable energy curtailment is projected at 9% to 12% of generation, compared with a current baseline of 7%.
The rapid expansion of renewable energy will require additional transmission investment.
The report identifies a need to increase the capacity of the Charrúa–Ancoa–Alto Jahuel–Lo Aguirre transmission corridor by at least 1,750 MVA at the 500 kV level. The reinforcement would allow wind power generated in central-southern Chile to reach major demand centers and northern regions through the future Kimal–Lo Aguirre transmission line.
The plan also includes further expansion of Chile’s 220 kV transmission network. Under all scenarios studied, the capacity of some existing transmission lines may need to increase by as much as six times. The areas with the greatest demand for additional capacity are Antofagasta in northern Chile and Maule in the central region.
Across the scenarios, Chile’s total energy demand is projected to increase by 4.1% to 47.8% over the planning period. The results depend largely on GDP growth and the pace of economic electrification.
Transport remains the largest energy-consuming sector. Under the regulatory scenario, the adoption of electric vehicles, electric taxis, and electric buses is expected to increase, while hydrogen could also play a role in heavy-duty transportation.
Electricity consumption from mining and industry is also expected to rise, while data centers are emerging as a new source of structural electricity demand. The report estimates that data center capacity stood at 198 MW in 2024 and could reach approximately 594 MW by 2030 and 900 MW by 2057.
Individuals and organizations registered in the PELP process were able to submit comments on the preliminary report by August 24. The Ministry of Energy will then prepare the final report, followed by further review and the publication of the corresponding energy planning decree.
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